Evaluating the design of the first marine protected area network in Pacific Canada under a changing climate

Abstract

Marine protected area (MPAs) networks can buffer marine ecosystems from the impacts of climate change by allowing species to redistribute as conditions change and by reducing other stressors. There are, however, few examples where climate change has been considered in MPA network design. In this paper, we assess how climate change considerations were integrated into the design of a newly released MPA network in the Northern Shelf Bioregion in British Columbia, Canada, and then evaluate the resulting network against projected physical and biogeochemical changes and biological responses. We found that representation, replication, and size and spacing recommendations integrated into the design phase were met in most cases. Furthermore, despite varying degrees of projected changes in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and aragonite saturation across the MPA network, suitable habitat for demersal fish species is projected to remain in the network despite some redistribution among sites. We also found that mid-depth MPAs are particularly important for persistence, as fish are projected to move deeper to avoid warming in shallower areas. Our results highlight that a representative MPA network with adequate replication, that incorporates areas of varying climate change trajectory, should buffer against the impacts of climate change.