Evaluating the current perceived cost of ownership for buses and trucks in China

Abstract

Decarbonizing commercial vehicles, including buses, trucks, and special purpose vehicles, is essential for China to achieve its carbon neutrality target by 2060. However, understanding the adoption barriers of alternative fuel technologies for commercial vehicles has largely been limited to the total cost of ownership approach that mainly considers tangible costs. This study proposes a perceived cost of ownership (PCO) model, which monetizes both tangible and implicit costs, including charging annoyance for buses and trucks by size and classification under different use scenarios. In the case study for China's current bus and truck market, the PCO of alternative fuel technologies, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are 27%–129% and 31%–86% higher than the most economically competitive powertrains – the compressed natural/liquefied petroleum gas technology and hybrid electric technology. BEVs could be cost-effective in the mini/midsize bus segment or in the daily short-distance driving scenario, and FCEVs could firstly be deployed in cities with a low hydrogen price. Though the implicit costs caused by range anxiety and charging annoyance account for at least 27% of BEV's PCO, making BEV uncompetitive, the battery swapping technique could reduce the implicit cost and overall cash outflow for BEV owners.