Evaluating the contribution of different environmental drivers to changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture, a case study of the Wudaogou Experimental Station

Abstract

Evapotranspiration and soil moisture content (SMC) are key elements of the hydrological cycle. Accurate prediction of the dynamic processes of evapotranspiration and soil water is essential for irrigation and water management. Here, the boosted regression tree (BRT) method was employed to quantify environmental controls on actual evapotranspiration (ETa), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and SMC using monitoring data from the Wudaogou hydrological experimental station. The results indicated that: (1) the BRT algorithm was effective in predicting the relative control of different environmental factors on ETa, ET0, and SMC; and (2) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was the most important factor affecting daily ET0, and sunshine duration (SSD) also played a nonnegligible role. The results further explained the phenomenon of the “evaporation paradox” in the study area. SSD could be a leading control on daily ETa, followed by VPD, leaf area index (LAI). (3) Among the underground factors, groundwater level (GL) and LAI played a dominant role in the relative contribution to SMC. Among the aboveground factors, relative humidity (RH) and soil temperature (TS) have a relatively large influence on SMC. (4) The differences in SMC at different depths were determined by multiple influencing factors, including LAI, VPD, and precipitation (P). This study also underscores the importance of vegetation variations to hydrological cycle processes. In general, climate warming and an increase in extreme rainfall events will increase the control of temperature on SMC and weaken the control of P on SMC in the future.