Evaluating the competitiveness and uncertainty of offshore wind-to-hydrogen production: A case study of Poland

Abstract

Offshore wind is currently the most rapidly growing renewable energy source on a global scale. The increasing deployment and high economic potential of offshore wind have prompted considerable interest in its use for hydrogen production. In this context, this study develops a Monte Carlo-based framework for assessing the competitiveness of offshore wind-to-hydrogen production. The framework is designed to evaluate the location-based variability of the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and explore the uncertainty that exists in the long-term planning of hydrogen production installations. The case study of Poland is presented to demonstrate the application of the framework. This work provides a detailed analysis of the LCOH considering the geographical coordinates of 23 planned offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea. Moreover, it presents a comparative analysis of hydrogen production costs from offshore and onshore wind parks in 2030 and 2050. The results show that hydrogen from offshore wind could range between €3.60 to €3.71/kg H2 in 2030, whereas in 2050, it may range from €2.05 to €2.15/kg H2.