EVALUATING THE CANDIDATE INCUMBENCY EFFECT IN JAPAN'S SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT ELECTIONS, 1996–2005

Abstract

This article examines the issue of the candidate incumbency effect in Japan's single-member district (SMD) elections after the 1994 electoral reform. I argue that the candidate incumbency advantage deeply entrenched in the pre-reform lower house elections continues to be significant during the post-reform era. Furthermore, I argue that the pattern of candidate incumbency advantage is modified by national ruling party/coalition membership and urban–rural distinction. Finally, I study why the difference in the source of incumbent status has a huge impact on SMD elections and how. By using a new data set from Japan's SMD elections for the period of 1996–2005, I find empirical evidence to corroborate my theoretical arguments.