Evaluating tacrolimus pharmacokinetic models in adult renal transplant recipients with different CYP3A5 genotypes.

Abstract

Numerous studies have been conducted on the population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in adult renal transplant recipients. It has been reported that the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A5 genotype is an important cause of variability in tacrolimus pharmacokinetics. However, the predictive performance of population pharmacokinetic (PK) models of tacrolimus should be evaluated prior to their implementation in clinical practice. The aim of the study reported here was to test the predictive performance of these published PK models of tacrolimus. A literature search of the PubMed and Web of Science databases ultimately led to the inclusion of eight one-compartment models in our analysis. We collected a total of 1715 trough concentrations from 174 patients. Predictive performance was assessed based on visual and numerical comparison bias and imprecision and by the use of simulation-based diagnostics and Bayesian forecasting. Of the eight one-compartment models assessed, seven showed better predictive performance in CYP3A5 extensive metabolizers in terms of bias and imprecision. Results of the simulation-based diagnostics also supported the findings. The model based on a Chinese population in 2013 (model 3) showed the best and most stable predictive performance in all the tests and was more informative in CYP3A5 extensive metabolizers. As expected, Bayesian forecasting improved model predictability. Diversity among models and between different CYP3A5 genotypes of the same model was also narrowed by Bayesian forecasting. Based on our results, we recommend using model 3 in CYP3A5 extensive metabolizers in clinical practice. All models had a poor predictive performance in CYP3A5 poor metabolizers, and they should be used with caution in this patient population. However, Bayesian forecasting improved the predictability and reduced differences, and thus the models could be applied in this latter patient population for the design of maintenance dose.