Evaluating surface and subsurface fluxes in hydrological models to advance basin-scale operational water supply forecasting

Abstract

ABSTRACT Comprehensive assessments of hydrological components are crucial for enhancing operational water supply simulations. However, hydrological models are often evaluated based on their surface flow simulations, while the validation of subsurface and groundwater components tends to be overlooked or not well documented. In this study, we evaluated the outputs of two hydrological models, the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting – Hydrological modeling extension package (WRF-Hydro), for potential implementation in operational water balance forecasting in the Great Lakes region. We examined the simulated hydrological variables including surface (e.g. snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, and streamflow), subsurface (e.g. soil moisture at different layers), and groundwater components with observed or reference data from ground-based stations and remotely sensed images. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the capabilities and limitations of each model. These findings contribute to more informed water management strategies for the Great Lakes region.