Abstract
This paper describes a pilot study in which Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to try and gain some insight into what form of society will prevail in South Africa in the foreseeable future. The problem is structured in a hierarchy in which the actors, or power-groups, are at the top and the alternative future scenarios are at the bottom. Panellists are used to establish the relative influences of the different actors as well as the preferences which each of the actors have for the different scenarios, by means of two-way matrices of paired comparisons. The results of the exercise are discussed, as is the use of this approach in a more serious attempt to forecast South Africa's future political, social and economic system.
Highlights
Over the past few years, possibly more so than during any other comparable period since World War 2, South Africa's political, social and economic system has come under great pressure for change, both from within and from outside its borders (Stadler [1], Frankel et al.[2], Lodge [3])
The aim of this paper has been to use Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy process to try and gain some insight into what form of society will prevail in South Africa in the forseeable future, once the present forces for change have had time to exert their influence on the economic, social and political scene
The most that the present exercise could hope to achieve is to test the usefulness of structuring the problem in a hierarchy and of using themethod of pairwise comparisons to elicit judgements on the relative influences and preferences within this structure
Summary
Over the past few years, possibly more so than during any other comparable period since World War 2, South Africa's political, social and economic system has come under great pressure for change, both from within and from outside its borders (Stadler [1], Frankel et al.[2], Lodge [3]). A slowdown in the economy over the past few years and the concomitant rise in unemployment have fuelled the fires of unrest Other groups, such as the ANC (African National Congress, which is banned in South Africa), committed to taking over power from the present government, have increased the use of violent means to achieve their ends. The smouldering war which has been carrying on between the South African Defence Force and SWAPO (the South West African Peoples Organisation) along the border of Namibia and Angola over the past decade, and the sporadic incidences of hostility between South Africa and its neighbours, have resulted in increased uncertainty and militarisation Under these circumstances the man in the street, be he black or white, is concerned about the future, and about what form of society will prevail in South Africa . The aim of this paper is to try and gain some insight into that question by means of Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process {AHP)
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