Evaluating Slope Deformation of Earth Dams Due to Earthquake Shaking Using MARS and GMDH Techniques

Mingxiang Cai,Mohammadreza Koopialipoor,Danial Jahed Armaghani,Binh Thai Pham

doi:10.3390/app10041486

Abstract

Assessing the behavior of earth dams under dynamic loads is one of the most significant problems with the design of such large structures. The purpose of this study is to provide new models for predicting dam dispersion in real earthquake conditions. In the first phase, 103 real cases of deformation in earth dams were collected and analyzed due to earthquakes that occurred over recent years. Using nonlinear and machine learning techniques, i.e., group method of data handling (GMDH) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), two models for prediction of the slope deformation in earth dams under the various types of earthquakes were applied and developed. The main parameters used in these simulation techniques were earthquake magnitude (Mw), fundamental period ratio (Td/Tp), yield acceleration ratio (ay/amax) as inputs and value of slope deformation (Dave) as output. Finally, in order to check the accuracy of the results of the new models, a comparison was made with the previous relations and models in seismic conditions for the slope deformation in earth dams. The results showed that the MARS model, which is able to provide a mathematical equation, has a better result than the GMDH model. These new models are recommended to be used for future analyses based on their flexible capabilities.

Highlights

In seismic loading, the study of dams’ behavior is a necessary and important issue
The group method of data handling (GMDH) model was implemented for evaluating the slope deformation of earth dams
Of the data sets collected in this study, about 80% of the data were used to design and train models randomly

Summary

Introduction

The study of dams’ behavior is a necessary and important issue. A wrong study of dams’ behavior in these conditions may result in irreversible damages. Among the primary and basic assumptions of the sliding block method is considering slide mass as a rigid body as well as the greater magnitude of acceleration arising from the earthquake than the yield acceleration that can result in movement of the mass [2,3]. This method was later modified and developed by scholars [4,5]. Considering the acceleration of the block response as the input acceleration of the system, Makdisi and Seed [6] evaluated the value of displacement with modification of the block

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Conclusion