Abstract

A Monte Carlo method of investigating the effects of placing selection criteria on the magnetic signature of in situ encounters with flux ropes is presented. The technique is applied to two recent flux rope surveys of MESSENGER data within the Hermean magnetotail. It is found that the different criteria placed upon the signatures will preferentially identify slightly different subsets of the underlying population. Quantifying the selection biases first allows the distributions of flux rope parameters to be corrected, allowing a more accurate estimation of the intrinsic distributions. This is shown with regard to the distribution of flux rope radii observed. When accounting for the selection criteria, the mean radius of Hermean magnetotail quasi‐force‐free flux ropes is found to be 589−269+273 km. Second, it is possible to weight the known identifications in order to determine a rate of recurrence that accounts for the presence of the structures that will not be identified. In the case of the Hermean magnetotail, the average rate of quasi‐force‐free flux ropes is found to 0.12 min−1 when selection effects are accounted for (up from 0.05 min−1 previously inferred from observations).

Highlights

  • Magnetic reconnection is the process by which two adjacent magnetic regimes can interact and reconfigure

  • In the case of the Hermean magnetotail, the average rate of quasi-force-free flux ropes is found to 0.12 min−1 when selection effects are accounted for

  • Once formed, the magnetic flux ropes will be ejected along the current sheet away from the dominant reconnection site

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Summary

Introduction

Magnetic reconnection is the process by which two adjacent magnetic regimes can interact and reconfigure. The location and properties of magnetotail flux ropes are often investigated through large statistical surveys of in situ spacecraft data at Earth (e.g., Borg et al, 2012; Imber et al, 2011; Moldwin & Hughes, 1992; Slavin et al, 2003), Mercury (e.g., DiBraccio et al, 2015; Smith, Slavin, Jackman, Poh, et al, 2017; Sun et al, 2016), and Mars (e.g., Briggs et al, 2011; Vignes et al, 2004) These surveys of in situ data are fundamentally limited by both the orbital locations of the spacecraft and any criteria placed upon the signatures of the flux ropes required. The Monte Carlo-based technique will be discussed, along with the magnetic field model utilized The recurrence of flux ropes will be discussed, using the technique to estimate the unseen or unidentified fractions of the population

Model and Method
Evaluating Selection Bias
Applications
Findings
Discussion
Conclusions
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