Evaluating Sediment Deposition Prediction by Three 137Cs Erosion Conversion Models

Abstract

Core Ideas We used 34 years of measured plot erosion data for 137Cs model validation. For the first time, deposition prediction of three widely used models was evaluated. A simple proportional model appeared to perform better than mass balance models. More rigorous validation is needed in conditions including 137Cs peak fallout period. Although the 137Cs technique has been widely used to estimate soil redistribution in past decades, most 137Cs‐conversion models have not been rigorously validated. The objective of this study was to explicitly evaluate the sediment deposition components of three widely used 137Cs models using 34 yr of soil loss data from a plot (200 × 80 m). The average slope of the plot is approximately 4% in the upper section and 1% in the lower section. The primary soil (fine, mixed, thermic, Udertic or Pachic Paleustoll) is silt loam with 23% sand and 56% silt. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was raised primarily under conventional tillage. Sediment load was measured with a pump sampler at the outlet. Bulk soil cores were taken in a 10‐m grid to estimate 137Cs inventory. The 137Cs depth profiles were measured at eight locations to determine net deposition depth. The proportional model (PM) and two mass balance models (mass balance model 1 [MBM1] and mass balance model 2 [MBM2]) were evaluated. The measured average deposition depth in the depositional area of the lower section was 5.83 cm, and the predicted deposition depths in the area were 4.12, 2.02, and 1.64 cm for PM, MBM1, and MBM2. The results indicated that the simple PM appeared to predict deposition depths better than the two sophisticated mass balance models under the study conditions. However, the true capability of the two mass balance models needs to be further evaluated under more complex conditions that include the critical period of 137Cs peak fallout in the 1950s and 1960s.