Abstract
The high portion of secondary Norway spruce in Central European forests constitutes a major problem because a significant part of these forests is moving further away from their original bioclimatic envelope. The precise evaluation and prediction of climatic suitability are needed for the implementation of forest adaptation strategies. We evaluated climatic suitability for the cultivation of Norway spruce in the Czech Republic forests, making use of the Random Forest combined learning statistical method. The evaluation presented was based on a comparison with the climatic normal period 1961–1990; change analysis was carried out for the period 1991–2014 and projected for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. We found that suitable conditions for Norway spruce will remain only in 11.3% by area of Czech forests in the period 2041–2060 vs. 46.0% in the period 1961–1990. We also compared tree cover loss data (using Global Forest Watch) from 2001 to 2020 with statistics on salvage logging. In the period, the cover loss affected 19.5% of the area with more than 30% Norway spruce. The relationships between relative tree cover loss and the percentage of salvage logging caused by insects were conclusive and statistically significant.
Highlights
The global mean temperature for 2020 was 1.2 ± 0.1 ◦C above the 1850–1900 baseline
The salvage logging prevailed over intentional logging in 2007–2008 and 2015–2020 (Figure 5b) in the Czech Republic
The increasing summer rainfall deficit and warm temperatures leading to an increase of stand transpiration deficits proved to raise the probability of bark beetle outbreak [49]
Summary
The global mean temperature for 2020 was 1.2 ± 0.1 ◦C above the 1850–1900 baseline. The last five-year (2016–2020) and 10-year (2011–2020) averages were the warmest on record [1]. The rise in global surface temperature is caused by increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [2]. The earth is expected to experience or exceed 1.5 ◦C of warming compared with 1850–1900 during the 20 years; it may be more than 2.5 ◦C above this baseline by the year 2050 if the least favorable greenhouse-gas emissions projections are met [2]. An integral part of the climatic trend is likely to be a change in precipitation distribution across Central Europe. All the environmental changes anticipated will markedly affect forest ecosystems
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