Evaluating provincial carbon emission characteristics under China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

Abstract

This study defines Provincial Carbon Emission Characteristics (PCEC) as the socioeconomic conditions influencing provincial carbon emissions, the potential for carbon neutrality, and carbon management strategies. Given China’s commitment to peak carbon emissions and to achieve carbon neutrality, the development of a robust and versatile PCEC evaluation system is imperative. However, previous studies that rely on single-objective evaluation models are limited. To address this gap, we propose a multi-objective PCEC evaluation system using a novel three-layer approach. This approach enhances the scientific rigor, comprehensiveness, and comparability of PCEC evaluation indicators (PCEC-EIs) by segregating the extraction process into three layers: (1) a factor layer, which identifies critical socioeconomic conditions; (2) a quantitative layer, which selects optimal quantitative indicators for each identified condition; and (3) a standardized layer, which standardizes these indicators, thereby improving their comparability. By applying hierarchical cluster analysis, our study classified 30 Chinese provinces into 7 distinct clusters, each with unique carbon emission characteristics. Further investigation of these clusters across various climate governance issues revealed the versatility of our multi-objective PCEC evaluation system. Our system supports the identification of provinces qualified to reach the emission peak earlier than 2030, differentiation of carbon intensity reduction efforts during the carbon peaking stage, and exploration of various emission reduction pathways to achieve carbon neutrality. Hence, our findings can guide the creation of bespoke emission-reduction strategies for each province; thus, aiding China’s national ambition to achieve peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. Importantly, our three-layered approach has broader implications beyond China, potentially assisting other regions or countries in grappling with similar climate-mitigation challenges.