Evaluating Policy Shifts on Perceived Greenspace Quality: Applying Regression Discontinuity During the COVID-19 Reopening Period

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Abstract: Urban greenspaces have been essential in supporting residents’ well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly under strict lockdown measures. However, the impact of changing containment policies on residents’ perceived greenspace quality remains insufficiently explored. This study utilized online survey data collected between 11 October and 29 December 2022, in Shanghai, coinciding with the major policy shift on 5 December 2022. A probability proportionate to size sampling was adopted to survey residents aged 18 and above who had lived in the city for at least six months, yielding a total of 577 valid responses. We assessed residents’ perceived greenspace quality using 20 park- and community-level variables, focusing on both overall quality and specific features of greenspaces. A regression discontinuity design (RDD) was applied to evaluate how the lifting of the COVID-19 policies influenced residents’ perceptions of parks and community greenspaces. Our RDD estimation indicates no statistically significant change in residents’ overall perceived quality of parks after the policy shift, except for increased satisfaction with specific features such as plant diversity, maintenance, seating areas, trails, and large open spaces. In contrast, residents who responded after the policy shift reported a significantly higher perceived quality of community greenspaces compared to those who completed the survey before the shift (0.609 score difference, p < 0.01), with notable increases in satisfaction regarding plant diversity, maintenance, and seating areas. Perception of plant quantity remained unchanged in both types of greenspaces. Residents expressed greater satisfaction with sports facilities in parks, while community greenspaces were preferred for their water features and esthetic qualities. By adopting an RDD with a unique dataset, this study contributes empirical evidence to the current ongoing debate on the role of urban greenspace during the later stages of COVID-19. Specifically, it examines how changes in public health policy and the resulting increase in mobility might affect residents’ perceived greenspace quality. The findings can assist decision-makers and urban planners in developing more adaptive strategies to address the diverse needs of residents for greenspaces during the transitional period of a public health crisis.