Evaluating physical climate risk for equity funds with quantitative modelling – how exposed are sustainable funds?

Abstract

ABSTRACT The effects of climate change carry substantial financial consequences. Despite this, physical climate risk has only sparsely been covered in previous research, particularly in the setting of investing. Investors' tools for managing physical risk are in general rudimentary and many rely on sustainability labels. This study compares physical climate risk exposure of three groups of equity funds labelled as sustainable with the general market. Physical climate risk was evaluated by quantitative modelling, incorporating first level of upstream supply chain. The results show a lower physical risk for all three groups of sustainable funds in a five- and ten-year horizon. It cannot be concluded whether the lower risk is a result of consideration in sustainability labelling, or if lower physical risk is correlated with other sustainability qualities. Further research on physical climate risk for investors is needed, not least from a quantitative perspective and on risks related to supply chain.