Abstract
Viet Nam is considered one of countries most affected by climate change and sea-level rise. It results in many negative effects, such as flooding, saline intrusion and beach erosion occurred in the coastal zones. Quang Ninh with more than 250 km coastline, located in the northeastern part of Vietnam, is one of the vulnerable coastal provinces under the heavily affected due to the sea level rise. In order to evaluate the changes of flooded areas and tidal beaches due to the sea level rise in Quang Ninh coastal zone a 2D numerical model is set up, using the 3-grids nesting technique. The numerical model is calibrated by using the harmonic constants of 8 tidal constituents at Hon Dau tide station and validated with the observed data. On the basis of the climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) in the period from 2020 to 2100, the corresponding sea level values are used in the numerical modeling to calculate the changes of flooded areas and tidal beaches due to the sea level rise. The obtained results on changing of the flooded area and tidal beach in Quang Ninh coastal zone are not only statically by changing water sea levels but also due to changing of the tidal range in this area. The calculated results point out that districts under the most affected of the sea level rise are Quang Yen, Tien Yen, Hai Ha, Mong Cai.
Highlights
Viet Nam is considered as one of countries most affected by climate change
Since 2009, The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment developed and published the climate change and sea level rise scenarios to promptly serve ministries, sectors and localities to implement the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change
These scenarios were updated in 2011, 2016 based on data sources, specific climatic conditions of Viet Nam and the results from climate models at the time and could be used as the basis orientation for ministries, provinces and localities to assess the potential impacts of climate change, develop and implement effective plans to respond to climate change and sea level rise 1
Summary
Viet Nam is considered as one of countries most affected by climate change. Over the past years, under the impact of climate change, the frequency and intensity of natural disasters are increasing, caused huge loss of human life, property, infrastructure, economy, society and lead to the bad influence on environment. Quang Ninh is one of the vulnerable coastal provinces under the affects of inundation, saline intrusion and beach erosion due to the climate change and the sea level rise. On the basis of the climate change scenarios issued by The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2016, the changes of flooded areas and tidal beaches due to the sea level rise after the scenarios (averaged) RCP4.5 and (highest) RCP8.5 for the period from 2020 to 2100 are calculated and evaluated.
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