Evaluating Offshore Wind as a Catalyst for Trinidad and Tobago’s Petrochemical Sector

Abstract

This study introduces a comprehensive analysis of offshore wind resource potential in Trinidad and Tobago, leveraging both the Wind Atlas Methodology (WAM) and the numerical wind atlas methodologies to address the region’s sparse wind measurement data. Utilizing atmospheric re-analysis data, specifically the ERA5 dataset, in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a generalized wind climates (GWCs) for Trinidad and Tobago was generated. These GWCs, refined with topographical and roughness data, guide the siting of offshore wind farms within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), considering water depths and proximate onshore terrain influences. The study quantifies the economic feasibility of offshore wind through both a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) analysis and by evaluating the value of redirected natural gas to the petrochemical industry. The LCOE, though currently higher than subsidized domestic electricity rates, is projected to decrease significantly by 2035. Notably, the value of displaced natural gas for petrochemical production offers substantial economic benefits, with potential payback periods for offshore wind investments well under a decade when considering 2021 methanol and ammonia prices. These findings underscore the strategic significance of offshore wind in Trinidad and Tobago’s energy mix. By transitioning to renewable energy sources, the nation can mitigate reliance on fossil fuels for power generation while optimizing natural gas usage in high-value sectors.