Evaluating of the earthquake hazard parameters with Bayesian method for the different seismic source regions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Abstract

The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M S = 7. 3 and 1897, M S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.