Evaluating multiple spatial dimensions of economic growth in Brazil using spatial panel data models

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the results of regional economic growth model estimations at multiple spatial scales using spatial panel data models. The spatial scales examined are minimum comparable areas, microregions, mesoregions and states between 1970 and 2000. Alternative spatial panel data models with fixed effects were systematically estimated across those spatial scales to demonstrate that the estimated coefficients change with the scale level. The results show that the conclusions obtained from growth regressions depend on the choice of spatial scale. First, the values of spatial spillover coefficients vary according to the spatial scale under analysis. In general, such coefficients are statistically significant at the MCA, microregional and mesoregional levels, however, at state level those coefficients are no longer statistically significant, suggesting that spatial spillovers are bounded in space. Moreover, the positive average-years-of-schooling direct effect coefficient increases as more aggregate spatial scales are used. Population density coefficients show that higher populated areas are harmful to economic growth, indicating that congestion effects are operating in all spatial scales, but their magnitudes vary across geographic scales. Finally, the club convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected suggesting that there are differences in the convergence processes between the north and south in Brazil. Furthermore, the paper discusses the potential theoretical reasons for different results found across estimations at different spatial scales.