Evaluating monitoring array performance using upper limit magnitude prediction

Abstract

Summary We use the unique dataset of the Preston New Road induced seismicity monitoring to evaluate the predictive power of the upper limit magnitude methodology. The upper limit magnitude methodology is based on extreme value theory and provides an upper limit on next record-breaking magnitudes based on observed seismicity. We show that this methodology provides reliable upper bound for the magnitudes during the hydraulic fracturing and we additionally evaluate its performance assuming different values of magnitude completeness corresponding to different induced seismicity monitoring networks ranging from downhole to surface monitoring arrays. We show that a higher magnitude of completeness does not results in reduced performance of the upper limit magnitude methodology. Finally, we show that it is more important to consider prior seismicity than drilling a deep dedicated monitoring borehole for induced seismicity monitoring.