Abstract
A management strategy evaluation (MSE) is used to estimate success at achieving conservation goals for marine mammals while also aiming to minimize impacts on commercial fisheries. It is intended to improve understanding of US import rules that require countries exporting fish and fish products to the USA to adhere to marine mammal bycatch standards “comparable” to those used by the USA. The MSE framework is applied, for illustrative purposes, to export fisheries in Iceland that impact harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Several management strategies are evaluated. The harbor porpoise population is estimated to be close to or above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and, according to the model, will continue to increase even if current levels of human-caused mortality are unchanged. In contrast, the grey seal and harbor seal populations are below MNPL, and bycatch mortality in the lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) fishery will need to be reduced to allow them to recover to MNPL.
Highlights
Two pinniped species breed in Iceland: harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus)
The numbers from the 2014 and 2016 censuses suggested that the Icelandic harbour seal population had decreased below the minimal population size presented in the management objective
Based on the 2018 population distribution, there is a 94% chance that the population size is below the threshold value of 12,000 animals (Table 1), which is suggested as the minimum population size in the management objective put forward by Icelandic authorities (NAMMCO 2006)
Summary
Two pinniped species breed in Iceland: harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). In a partial census carried out in 2014, with only the largest harbour seal haul‐out sites surveyed, the results indicated an annual decline of 28.55% in the period from 2011‐2014 (Granquist et al 2014). This decline was confirmed during the most recent complete census from 2016, when the population size was estimated to be 7,700 animals (Þorbjörnsson et al 2017). Examining changes in population sizes and monitoring of general and local trends, is important to obtain sufficient knowledge of the status of the population and to facilitate sustainable management of the Icelandic harbour seal population Such knowledge is a crucial base for other research undertaken on the Icelandic seal populations
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