Evaluating long-term greenhouse gas mitigation opportunities through carbon capture, utilization, and storage in the oil sands

Abstract

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) has been identified as the only option for substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel-based processes. There has been limited research into the long-term GHG reduction potential of integrating CCUS into unconventional oil extraction processes. We developed a CCUS-oil sands market penetration model and integrated it with a bottom-up energy model (LEAP-Canada) to conduct a cost-benefit case study for the Canadian oil sands. Scenarios were developed considering currently available CCUS technologies and were investigated under different carbon pricing policies. Cumulative GHG emission mitigation potential from the CCUS applications ranged from 3 to 232 million tonnes (Mt) with marginal costs of $-28–42/tCO2e. Carbon pricing led to an average 3% increase in 2050 market shares of the technologies, resulting in additional GHG abatement of 4.9% (172 Mt). CCUS was found to be the costliest GHG emission mitigation option compared to increased integration of cogeneration and energy efficiency measures. The maximum cumulative oil sands GHG emission mitigation achieved in this study was 7%. This research ultimately provides insights into applications of CCUS technologies into the oil sands industry that might be useful to industry planners and policymakers and support the sustainable development of oil sands resources.