Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the opinions and experiences of local and national Dutch policy-makers in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes. Motives behind the selection of foresight methods, the timing involved in using insights from foresight studies in strategic policy-making processes, the added value of foresight methods, and the barriers and leverage points experienced by policy-makers are described and compared at the local and the national level. Different insights are related to different activities in the policy cycle, i.e., agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a ‘supply-driven’ point of view, by which we mean from the point of view of experts on the production or methodology of foresight studies. In this paper, the evaluation is approached from a demand-driven perspective, in other words, from a user perspective – i.e., that of policy-makers who have applied the results of foresight methods in policy-making processes. The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses, in-depth interviews, and questionnaire research involving users in the local and national policy domain.