Evaluating Investments in Advanced Manufacturing Technology: A Fuzzy Set Theory Approach

Abstract

In this paper, a model for the evaluation of investments in advanced manufacturing technology is developed. Many authors have called for an integration of financial and non-financial factors in such evaluations, and this paper demonstrates that it is conceptually possible to do this using the mathematics of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy set theory. The development of the model has certain distinguishing features. First, it is based on a conceptual framework that combines the three dimensions of risk, financial return and non-financial factors. The empirical basis for this has been investigated and previously reported by the authors. Second, models previously developed and reported in the literature are shown to suffer from certain flaws relating to the use of linguistic scales, the ranking of fuzzy performance indicators and partiality in the treatment of investment decision variables. These issues are addressed through the development of simpler linguistic scales based on the analytic hierarchy, a revised procedure for ranking fuzzy numbers and an attempt to build a comprehensive model through the three dimensions described above. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used throughout in order to make the mathematics tractable and relatively easy to understand, and to facilitate presentation of a worked example. However, so that the reader is not misled, attention is drawn to some of the complexities in fuzzy arithmetic, especially the important distinction between subtraction/division and deconvolution of fuzzy numbers.