Evaluating Inundation Characteristics under Climate Changes

Abstract

A procedure of hydrodynamic modeling of floodplain inundation characteristics is presented; the procedure takes into account climate change scenarios and is based on the results of numerical experiments with river runoff formation model and the results of ensemble calculations by global climate models. The model calculations were based on Russian software systems ECOMAG and STREAM_2D. For the key segment of the Lena at Yakutsk C. (Tabaga gage), the calculations by all scenarios and models show a possible increase in the runoff by the mid-XXI century along with an increase in the inundation areas and depths by 9–15% due to the increase in runoff.