Evaluating How Smartphone Contact Tracing Technology Can Reduce the Spread of Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19.

Enrique Hernandez-Orallo,Pietro Manzoni,Carlos Tavares Calafate,Juan-Carlos Cano

doi:10.1109/access.2020.2998042

Enrique Hernandez-Orallo, Pietro Manzoni + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2020.2998042

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Abstract

Detecting and controlling the diffusion of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is crucial to managing epidemics. One common measure taken to contain or reduce diffusion is to detect infected individuals and trace their prior contacts so as to then selectively isolate any individuals likely to have been infected. These prior contacts can be traced using mobile devices such as smartphones or smartwatches, which can continuously collect the location and contacts of their owners by using their embedded localisation and communications technologies, such as GPS, Cellular networks, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of these technologies and determines the impact of contact tracing precision on the spread and control of infectious diseases. To this end, we have created an epidemic model that we used to evaluate the efficiency and cost (number of people quarantined) of the measures to be taken, depending on the smartphone contact tracing technologies used. Our results show that in order to be effective for the COVID-19 disease, the contact tracing technology must be precise, contacts must be traced quickly, and a significant percentage of the population must use the smartphone contact tracing application. These strict requirements make smartphone-based contact tracing rather ineffective at containing the spread of the infection during the first outbreak of the virus. However, considering a second wave, where a portion of the population will have gained immunity, or in combination with some other more lenient measures, smartphone-based contact tracing could be extremely useful.

Highlights

The recent COVID-19 pandemic poses a major threat to our society and way of life
EPIDEMIC MODEL FOR EVALUATING CONTACT TRACING EFFICIENCY we introduce our model for describing the individual contacts and tracing mechanism
EVALUATION OF THE MODELS This section evaluates the previous models, their precision and applicability. It shows the dynamics of the epidemic when considering different quarantine measures

Summary

Introduction

The recent COVID-19 pandemic poses a major threat to our society and way of life. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions infected. Most countries have taken severe measures, such as quarantines, lockdowns and social distancing, which continue to impact the population dramatically. The impact on the world economy is still hard to predict. Countries and regions have tried tackling the COVID-19 outbreak in different ways to varying results. Countries such as South Korea and Israel took action quickly just as the first infectious cases appeared.

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