Abstract
Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species.
Highlights
There are hundreds to thousands of exotic species established outside their native ecosystems [1]
Models fitted using all variables except the focal one, showed that the exclusion of total annual precipitation and mean temperature of the warmest season caused the highest reduction in gain (Table 2)
Models excluding the focal variable showed that for North American species (Fig. S1–S5) the exclusion of total annual precipitation caused the highest reduction in gain, but for Eurasian species (Fig. S6–S9) the highest reduction is caused by total annual precipitation and annual mean temperature (Table 2)
Summary
There are hundreds to thousands of exotic species established outside their native ecosystems [1]. Given that eradication of established invasive species often implies large economic costs concurrent with a low probability of success, the logical recommendation for governments is to place the highest priority on preventing introduction of such species [3,4]. In this regard, pest risk assessment (PRA) is a key procedure that encompasses several methodologies that aim to evaluate the likelihood of an exotic species being introduced to a region and causing damage to agriculture [5]. PRA uses biological and economic information to determine whether some species should be regulated and the strength of the sanitary measures to be taken against it [6]
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