Evaluating Geospatial Data Adequacy for Integrated Risk Assessments: A Malaria Risk Use Case

Abstract

International policy and humanitarian guidance emphasize the need for precise, subnational malaria risk assessments with cross-regional comparability. Spatially explicit indicator-based assessments can support humanitarian aid organizations in identifying and localizing vulnerable populations for scaling resources and prioritizing aid delivery. However, the reliability of these assessments is often uncertain due to data quality issues. This article introduces a data evaluation framework to assist risk modelers in evaluating data adequacy. We operationalize the concept of “data adequacy” by considering “quality by design” (suitability) and “quality of conformance” (reliability). Based on a use case we developed in collaboration with Médecins Sans Frontières, we assessed data sources popular in spatial malaria risk assessments and related domains, including data from the Malaria Atlas Project, a healthcare facility database, WorldPop population counts, Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) precipitation estimates, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) precipitation forecast, and Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) conflict events data. Our findings indicate that data availability is generally not a bottleneck, and data producers effectively communicate contextual information pertaining to sources, methodology, limitations and uncertainties. However, determining such data’s adequacy definitively for supporting humanitarian intervention planning remains challenging due to potential inaccuracies, incompleteness or outdatedness that are difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, the data hold value for awareness raising, advocacy and recognizing trends and patterns valuable for humanitarian contexts. We contribute a domain-agnostic, systematic approach to geodata adequacy evaluation, with the aim of enhancing geospatial risk assessments, facilitating evidence-based decisions.