Evaluating Future Building Energy Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability with PCM integration in Building Envelope

Abstract

The energy demand in the building sector is anticipated to increase with climate change and the high energy consumption is responsible for releasing enormous amounts of CO2 into the environment, intensifying climate change. Phase change material (PCM) integration into the building envelope has a high potential to reduce the building's energy demand without compromising environmental sustainability. This research investigated the impact of PCMs (PCM 18–PCM 30) on building cooling, heating, and annual energy efficiency for future climate scenarios (2095) in 13 different climate zones worldwide. For this purpose, the Fanger comfort model was implemented and numerical simulations were performed using Energyplus. The performance of PCM was evaluated using novel Predicted Mean Vote fluctuation reductions (PMVFR), and the Total Predicted Mean Vote drop (TPMVD). Further, for the first time, a time series-forecasting model for the estimation of CO2 emissions originating from various energy production sources in the future was developed using gene-expression programming (GEP) algorithm. Finally, the two different maps showing the PCM efficiency for energy conservation and environmental sustainability at the global level are presented. The results evidence a maximum of 12.9% reduction in annual energy demand in the future with the integration of PCM. The GEP-based prediction model demonstrated good accuracy as determined by the statistical parameters and satisfied the external validation requirements. The environmental analysis exhibits that PCM integration can reduce carbon emissions up to 204 CO2-e Kg/year. Overall, the integration of PCM is regarded as a sustainable solution for building energy efficiency, considering climate change.