Evaluating COVID-19 Exposure Notification Effectiveness With SimAEN: A Simulation Tool Designed for Public Health Decision Making.

Abstract

Exposure notification (EN) supplements traditional contact tracing by using proximity sensors in smartphones to record close contact between persons. This ledger is used to alert persons of potential SARS-CoV-2 exposure, so they can quarantine until their infection status is determined. We describe a model that estimates the impact of EN implementation on reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and on the workload of public health officials, in combination with other key public health interventions such as traditional contact tracing, face mask wearing, and testing. We created an agent-based model, Simulated Automated Exposure Notification (SimAEN), to explore the effectiveness of EN to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We varied selected simulation variables, such as population adoption of EN and EN detector sensitivity configurations, to illustrate the potential effects of EN. We executed 20 simulations with SimAEN for each scenario and derived results for each simulation. When more sensitive versus more specific EN configurations were compared, the effective reproductive number, RE, was minimally affected (a decrease <0.03). For scenarios with increasing levels of EN adoption, an increasing number of additional infected persons were identified through EN, and total infection counts in the simulated population decreased; RE values for this scenario decreased with increasing EN adoption (a decrease of 0.1 to 0.2 depending on the scenario). Estimates from SimAEN can help public health officials determine which levels of EN adoption in combination with other public health interventions can maximize prevention of COVID-19 while minimizing unnecessary quarantine in their jurisdiction.