Evaluating Correlations and Development of Meteorology Based Yield Forecasting Model for Strawberry

Abstract

California state is among the leading producers of strawberries in the world. The value of the California strawberry crop is approximately $2.6 billion, which makes it one of the most valuable fruit crops for the state and nation’s economy. California’s weather provides ideal conditions for strawberry production and changes in weather pattern could have a significant impact on strawberry fruit production. Evaluating relationships between meteorological parameters and strawberry yield can provide valuable information and early indications of yield forecasts that growers can utilize to their advantage. Objectives of this paper were to evaluate correlations of meteorological parameters on strawberry yield for Santa Maria region and to develop meteorology based empirical yield forecasting models for strawberries. Results showed significant correlation between meteorological parameters and strawberry yield and provided a basis for yield forecasting with lead time. Results from empirical models showed that cross-validated yields were closely associated with observed yield with lead time of 2 to 5 months. Overall, this study showed great potential in developing meteorology based yield forecast using principal components. This study only looked at meteorology based yield forecasts. Skills of these models can be further improved by adding physiological parameters of strawberry to existing models for strawberry.