Evaluating climate change scenarios on global pea aphid habitat suitability using species distribution models

Abstract

The global threat of invasive alien species (IAS) being introduced into new habitats is concerning, particularly in agricultural crops as invasive insect species are continuing to expand their distribution through anthropogenic activities and climate changes. Pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris) are an economic threat to numerous legume crops as they can reproduce parthenogenetically, damage crops directly, and vector over 30 plant viruses as the insect's distribution continues to spread. There are no existing pea aphid-specific risk maps that identify the habitat suitability of pea aphids at either a regional or global scale. Here, we used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to evaluate which climatic variables influence pea aphid distribution, identify regions of potential distribution, and analyze the global distribution of pea aphids under current and future climate change scenarios (SSP 126, 245, and 370) by utilizing presence-only SDMs based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The modeling results indicate suitable conditions are relevant for pea aphid establishment in six out of seven continents, with significant range expansion in western Canada, the United States of America, and across Europe. We identified human influence to be the most prominent predictor in determining the distribution of pea aphids, supporting the fact that invasive species distributions are heavily impacted by human activities.