Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs

Abstract

As disturbances continue to increase in magnitude and severity under climate change, there is an urgency to develop climate-informed management solutions to increase resilience and help sustain the supply of ecosystem services over the long term. Towards this goal, we used climate analog modeling combined with logic-based conditions assessments to quantify the future resource stability (FRS) under mid-century climate. Analog models were developed for nine climate projections for 1 km cells across California. For each model, resource conditions were assessed at each focal cell in comparison to the top 100 climate analog locations using fuzzy logic. Model outputs provided a measure of support for the proposition that a given resource would be stable under future climate change. Raster outputs for six ecosystem resources exhibited a high degree of spatial variability in FRS that was largely driven by biophysical gradients across the State, and cross-correlation among resources suggested similarities in resource responses to climate change. Overall, about one-third of the State exhibited low stability indicating a lack of resilience and potential for resource losses over time. Areas most vulnerable to climate change occurred at lower elevations and/or in warmer winter and summer environments, whereas high stability occurred at higher elevation, or at mid-elevations with warmer summers and cooler winters. The modeling approach offered a replicable methodology to assess future resource stability across large regions and for multiple, diverse resources. Model outputs can be readily integrated into decision support systems to guide strategic management investments.