Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change affects ecosystems, agriculture, human health, forestry, and water resource availability. This study is mainly aimed at assessing the climate change effect on the water resources of the Kessie Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP-6) data outputs were used. The three climate model outputs: ACESS_ESM1-5, FGOALS_g3, and GFDL_ESM4 with two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios, were used. The climate model output rainfall and temperature data were downscaled to the station level through bias correction. The catchment hydrology was represented by the SWAT—Soil and Water Assessment Tool—through calibration and validation. Future temperatures and rainfall change were evaluated by the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Future climate change trend analysis and streamflow simulation were done on two time horizons: the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100). The baseline streamflow data (1985–2014) were used as a reference. The global climate model projection data indicated mean annual precipitation and temperatures show a slight increase for the future in both scenarios for all climate model outputs. According to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, mean annual precipitation is expected to increase by 5% and 4.89% in the 2050s and 10.13% and 6.8% in the 2080s based on ACCESS_ESM1-5; 4.7% and 3.8% in the 2050s and 4.3% and 4.84% in the 2080s based on FGOALS_g3; and 4.67% and 3.81% in the 2050s and 4.67% and 3.81% based on GFDL_ESM4 models data. Yearly average maximum temperature may increase by 3.62 °C and 1.87 °C in the 2050s and 3.31 °C and 2.99 °C in the 2080s based on ACCESS ESM1-5, 1.76 °C and 1.25 °C in the 2050s and 3.44 °C and 2.61 °C in the 2080s based on FGOALS-g3, and 2.15 °C and 3.83 °C in the 2050s and 1.37 °C and 2.66 °C in the 2080s based on GFDL-ESM4 model data. Similarly, the mean annual minimum temperature is also expected to increase by 2.73 °C and 1.90 °C in the 2050s and 5.63 °C and 4.52 °C in the 2080s based on ACCESS ESM1-5, 3.04 °C and 2.43 °C in the 2050s and 3.55 °C and 4.36 °C in the 2080s based on FGOALS-g3, and 2.31 °C and 3.29 °C in the 2050s, and 3.16 °C and 3.87 °C in the 2080s based on GFDL-ESM4 model data. The streamflow is also expected to increase. In the 2050s, simulated annual streamflow is expected to increase from 12.1 to 21.8% and 9.8 to 15.4% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, whereas in the 2080s, the change is expected to increase from 15.14 to 24.08% and 13.08 to 41% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Future water resource potential of the case study watershed seems able to support irrigation and other projects.