Evaluating Changing Paradigms Across the Nuclear Industry

Abstract

The International Energy Agency (2015) states that global nuclear energy capacity will need to double by 2050 to achieve meaningful reductions in carbon emissions. To that end, there are over thirty countries around the world pursuing their first commercial nuclear power plants, and almost all will import their first reactors. The U.S. nuclear industry simply cannot compete with countries like Russia and China when it comes to exporting large light-water reactor (LWR) projects. Yet there is a boom of companies working on advanced nuclear technologies in the U.S., many aiming to be cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Someof these designs, particularly microreactors less than 10MW, could be demonstrated on much shorter timelines and at much lower costs than previously assumed, proving the technology domestically while also validating a potential export product. This thesis will investigate the nexus between these two emergent trends in the global nuclear industry: a shift away from the US as the dominant exporter and the implications for international security, andthe move toward smaller, factory-produced commercial nuclear reactors. In Chapter 2, I explore the role that nuclear exports have played historically in strengthening international nuclear material control regimes, and the implications of a decline in U.S. exports. I present results from a participatory expert workshop that evaluated policies that might be adopted to regain U.S. influence, including expanded U.S. exports of new nuclear technologies. However, the results from the workshop indicated that diplomatic strategies would be more feasible to implement over strategies that relied on a revitalized U.S. nuclearexport market. The experts concluded that advanced reactor technologies would not be commercially viable on relevant timescale. Yet recent policy and commercial developmentsuggest that microreactors could be commercialized on much shorter timelines. To understand the potential of these microreactors, in Chapter 3, I perform a technoeconomicevaluation of small-scale nuclear off-grid and community microgrid applications. I develop case studies for potential niche markets for the technology: two off-grid dieselivpowered Canadian communities, a large hospital in Alaska, and a college campus in Wisconsin. The results indicate that microreactors can be cheaper and more reliable comparedto 100% renewables systems, and they can also be cost-competitive with diesel where fuel costs are greater than $1/liter and the microreactor capital cost is less than $15,000/kW. However, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for microreactors is most sensitive to theinitial capital cost, and whether this technology will ever move beyond niche markets will depend on the learning effects accrued through factory fabrication. Thus, in Chapter 4 I will examine the hypothetical trade-offs between economies of scale and economies of volume for potential factory-fabricated microreactors. I calculate the break-even volumes necessary for microreactors to become cost-competitive with large reactors and with fossil fuels, using parameters from historic nuclear builds and analogousenergy technologies. Drawing from the literature on learning rates across energy technologies, I predict potential learning rates for various sized microreactors based on historical relations. Finally, I will outline some of the policy challenges of this new nuclear paradigm, along with areas for future study regarding the near-term deployment of microreactors.