Abstract
AbstractThe aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground‐based infrastructure, and high‐altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30‐min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION‐Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION‐Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90% are overpredicted.
Highlights
Particles in the magnetosphere can be subject to acceleration or scattering processes resulting in particles being lost to the upper atmosphere
We have produced the OVATION-Prime 2013 (OP-2013) auroral forecasts spanning the period of May 2000–October 2002 (Marsh & Mooney, 2021), coinciding with the available observational auroral boundary data from Longden et al (2010), using historic solar wind data measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, provided by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
We present the results of our evaluation of the OP-2013 model using the locations of the auroral boundaries derived from IMAGE wideband imaging camera (WIC) data
Summary
Particles in the magnetosphere can be subject to acceleration or scattering processes resulting in particles being lost to the upper atmosphere. Particles precipitating into the upper atmosphere undergo collisions which result in a cascade of free electrons. These free electrons undergo further collisions, losing energy until they can eventually collisionally excite atmospheric atoms and ions. The free electrons and excited molecules in the upper atmosphere are known to degrade long-range radio communications in ultra-high frequency (UHF) wavebands (Harang & Stroffregen, 1940; Jones et al, 2017; Moore, 1951). Increased electron precipitation in the upper atmosphere can cause increased absorption of radio signals in the ionosphere
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