Evaluating and forecasting the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems: A comparative evaluation of different optimized grey models

Abstract

There is little research that evaluates the niche fitness of regional innovation ecosystems (RIEs) based on current niche theories, even though RIE development is a key driver of national and regional development. This study seeks to address the gap in research by constructing an evaluation index system and an evaluation model for the niche fitness of RIEs based on niche theories and by assessing the niche fitness of 30 Chinese RIEs for the years 2010 to 2019. The results show, first, that from 2010 to 2019, the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs overall was low. We suggest one possible reason for this finding might be the imbalanced development of different Chinese RIEs, as well as the lagging development of China's innovation community and habitat niche. Second, our findings show that RIE development needs a higher level of support from different ecological factors. Moreover, studies that predict the niche fitness of RIEs using forecasting models such as the grey model—GM (1,1)—remain scarce, even though forecasting the niche fitness of RIEs could provide a good reference for formulating innovation policies. Therefore, this study, aiming to fill this research gap, also establishes an optimized grey model—FMCGM (1,1)—to forecast the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs for the years 2021–2025, in addition to the analysis discussed above. Our results obtained by using FMCGM (1,1) show, first, that in the period 2021–2025, the niche fitness of Chinese RIEs will gradually increase, and second, that the development mode of Chinese RIEs will change from one mainly supported by the resource niche and the technology niche into a more balanced support mode via different ecological factors. To sum up, this study, presenting new methods to evaluate and forecast the niche fitness of RIEs, not only contributes to the research of RIE and grey forecasting models but also provides new insights for RIE governance.