Abstract
The Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) strategic plan will expire in 2020, but biodiversity loss is ongoing. Scientists call for more ambitious targets in the next agreement. The nature-needs-half movement, for example, has advocated conserving half of Earth to solve the biodiversity crisis, which has been translated to protecting 50% of each ecoregion. We evaluated current protection levels of ecoregions in the territory of one of the CBD's signatories, the European Union (EU). We also explored the possible enlargement of the Natura 2000 network to implement 30% or 50% ecoregion coverage in the EU member states' protected area (PA) network. Based on the most recent land-use data, we examined whether ecoregions have enough natural area left to reach such high coverage targets. We used a spatially explicit mixed integer programing model to estimate the least-cost expansion of the PA network based on 3 scenarios that put different emphasis on total conservation cost, ecological representation of ecosystems, or emphasize an equal share of the burden among member states. To realize 30% and 50% ecoregion coverage, the EU would need to add 6.6% and 24.2%, respectively, of its terrestrial area to its PA network. For all 3 scenarios, the EU would need to designate most recommended new PAs in seminatural forests and other semi- or natural ecosystems. Because 15 ecoregions did not have enough natural area left to implement the ecoregion-coverage targets, some member states would also need to establish new PAs on productive land, allocating the largest share to arable land. Thirty percent ecoregion coverage was met by protecting remaining natural areas in all ecoregions except 3, where productive land would also need to be included. Our results support discussions of higher ecoregions protection targets for post-2020 biodiversity frameworks.
Highlights
The Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 will soon expire
Because signatories explicitly call for scenarios and models on different spatial scales to inform the development of post-2020 targets (CBD 2018), we undertook a detailed assessment for the European Union (EU) as one of the signatories of the CBD
We aimed to evaluate the current amount of ecoregions protected in the entire terrestrial protected area (PA) estate of the EU’s member states and to assess how the EU could fill potential gaps toward more ambitious 30% and 50% ecoregion coverage targets
Summary
The Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 will soon expire. At COP14, the CBD’s signatories discussed the global post-2020 biodiversity framework and considered the strategic expansion of protected areas (PAs) as an essential measure toward the 2050 biodiversity vision to live “in harmony with nature” (UNEP 2011). Proposals for the CBD’s strategic plan range from conserving 100% of all remaining intact ecosystems (Watson et al 2018) to protecting 30% of all land and ocean areas until 2030 and 50% until 2050 (Baillie & Zhang 2018). There has been much support for this vision among the conservation science community (Cafaro et al 2017; Watson & Venter 2017; Kopnina et al 2018), and some researchers have examined its systematic implementation and possible trade-offs with other land-uses on the global level (Mehrabi et al 2018; Pimm et al 2018). Because signatories explicitly call for scenarios and models on different spatial scales to inform the development of post-2020 targets (CBD 2018), we undertook a detailed assessment for the European Union (EU) as one of the signatories of the CBD
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