Evaluating a Complex Debris Dispersion Model Using Experimental Design Techniques

Abstract

ver the past several years there has been a steady increase in space launch operations and forecasters conservatively predict slight growth in future launch rates. New technologies, national security, and the development of new markets in the commercial space transportation industry could further accelerate this growth. Although the September 11, 2001 attacks have reduced the current level of operations, the FAA expects the longterm growth in air travel to resume in the 2004 to 2013 timeframe. These trends will require a safe and efficient integration of both air and space transportation vehicles operating in shared airspace. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and NASA are developing operational concepts that will seamlessly integrate air and space launch/reentry operations while ensuring that the highest levels of safety, security, and efficiency are maintained. The current procedure for ensuring aircraft are safely distanced from the spacecraft during a launch is to restrict all air traffic from flying in a very large region of Special Use Airspace (SUA) and/or Altitude Reservations (ALTRV) within the range. Figure 1 presents a debris hazard zone within a hypothetical SUA/ALTRV. During a launch, aircraft that would normally fly through this airspace simply take a longer, alternate route to their destination. This procedure accommodates today’s launch rates and the air traffic around the launch site. However, this procedure will probably not be acceptable if launch rates significantly increase, or when