Evacuation and shelter plans for asteroid impacts informed by hurricanes and nuclear explosions

Abstract

Evacuation zone recommendations are determined for potential asteroid impacts. In most impacts on land, the dominant damage mechanism is the blast wave. Hurricane evacuations in the United States show that on average people evacuate to a 1 in a million risk of fatality level. To achieve the equivalent risk from a blast wave, preliminary estimates show that everyone within the 1–2 psi (≈0.07–0.14 atm or bar) blast radius should evacuate as, even when taking shelter, the risk threshold is probably exceeded. From there out to the 0.4–0.5 psi radii, seeking shelter in the basement of a reinforced concrete building or storm shelter, or in a home-built shelter in the basement of a house would suffice as alternatives to evacuation while keeping the fatality risk below 1 in a million. From 0.4 down to 0.1–0.2 psi, windows may break but little to no structural damage to buildings is expected, so simply staying away from windows and doors would be sufficient.