Evacuation action during torrential rain considering situation awareness error using protection motivation theory

Abstract

The torrential rains in July 2018 caused considerable river overflow, flood damage, and landslides, particularly in western Japan. At that time, 232 fatalities and missing persons were recorded, with most human damage caused by delays in evacuation. These delays occur during most torrential rain events, and can presumably be attributed to a situation awareness error in the disaster response of residents. This study analyzed the evacuation decision-making structure by adding a situation awareness error to the protection motivation theory framework. Accordingly, the evacuation actions of residents during torrential rains in Japan in 2018 were surveyed and analyzed using structural equation modeling and logistic regression. Most respondents chose not to evacuate despite showing a high intention to do so. Such respondents evacuated only in response to a trigger such as a dramatic change in their surrounding environment or the receipt of an evacuation appeal. By considering situation awareness errors in protection motivation theory, this study identified active and passive evacuation decisions to clarify the stage at which evacuation delays occurred. The findings provide guidance on the stage of situation awareness that should be promoted and the specific measures required to achieve efficient evacuation.