Eurozone Crisis Scenario: Possible Developments and Lessons for Economic Integration Communities with Participation of Russia

Abstract

Topic. The article reviews the legal possibility of full or partial EMU breakup (EURO-crack). The authors conducted jurisprudential researches of the European experience and compare both the provisions of the EU and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) documents (Treaty, Protocol 15) and integration processes maturity of the latter. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to consider possible mechanisms and consequences of European Union (EU) member states exit from the economic and monetary union (EMU); to assess the applicability of the European experience to the development of monetary and economic integration among member states of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Methodology. The authors of the article use scenario analysis method to assess legal grounds, procedures, mechanisms and consequences of EU member states exit from the economic and monetary union for the ongoing one (Brexit) and the most probable options. Results. The authors systematize and conduct consistent analysis of prerequisites, the chronology of formation of various European integration associations, fundamental legal documents and key milestones in the formation of monetary integration in the EU, the stages of European EMU development in its contemporary form. They include an exit from Eurozone: with further immediate application for repeat accession without taking part in the monetary union; retaining the EU membership based on the provisions of Vienna Convention regarding the law of treaties and that arising out of the Treaty on the functioning of the EU. Conclusions. The authors conclude that the modern system of international law provides an effective denouncement mechanism of the Treaty on European Union and its individual provisions. They argue the possibility of changing the legal status of member States with varying degrees of participation in EMU and, on the example of Italy, criticized the initiative for a unilateral exit of a member state of the EMU. Jurisprudential researches of the European experience conducted by the authors, allowed them to compare the provisions of the documents of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) (Treaty, Protocol 15)), and the degree of maturity of the integration processes of the latter. Conclusions made by the authors about the prospects of economic and monetary integration of member States of the EAEU are the base of recommendations for action concerning deepening economic integration and creation of common financial market of the EEU. Conclusions made by the authors are also relevant to state authorities of the Russian Federation, including economic authorities and organs of diplomacy.