EuroSCORE II is a good predictor of mortality in isolated coronary surgery

Abstract

Purpose: The additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) models have been used since 1999 and 2003 respectively. The considerable improvement in cardiac surgery, during the past decade, mostly due to technological progress and changed patient risk profile, affected the precision of current scoring systems in establishing the real operative risk. For this reason, the new EuroSCORE II model was introduced in 2012. The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic value, sensitivity and specificity of the EuroSCORE II model in cardiac surgery. Methods: This prospective study included 1072 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery, in one-year period (2012) at our Institute. Patients were divided in 3 groups, according to the type of surgical procedure: coronary surgery 58.4% (626 patients), valvular surgery 22.4% (240 patients) and combined interventions 19.2% (206 patients). The predicted mortality according to the EuroSCORE II and the observed mortality (30-days after operation) were compared. Results: Table 1 summarizes the results of this investigation. View this table: Table 1. EuroSCORE II Conclusion: According to our one-year results, the EuroSCORE II shows excellent accuracy in terms of calibration and discriminative power in the subset of isolated coronary surgery patients. In valvular surgery, this model underestimates operative risk but gives rather good classification of patients. However, in combined surgery, the EuroSCORE II underestimates operative risk as well, and does not provide satisfactory discriminative power.