Euroscepticism and the Treaty of Lisbon: Why did the size of the No vote change so dramatically between the first and second referenda in Ireland?

Abstract

CESAA 18TH ANNUAL EUROPE ESSAY COMPETITION 2010 - Honours winner: Benjamin Power, Australian National UniversityThis paper demonstrates that the existing literature on voter preference formation in European referenda is insufficient to explain the shift in support for Lisbon in just 16 months. Building on a range of existing work to classify different Eurosceptic attitudes within Ireland, it focuses on why so many ‘soft’ Eurosceptics switched their votes from No to Yes between Lisbon I and II. Mainstream scholarly attention has converged around two distinct accounts of the way voters form preferences in European referenda, focusing on either domestic politics or the contents of individual treaties as the primary determinants of results. However, these explanations fail to describe for the significant role played by the worsening economic environment in Ireland between Lisbon referenda, as demonstrated by both polling data and immediate media reaction. This highlights a significant gap in the current understanding of European referenda, and points to an important future research agenda.