Abstract
Immigration’s effect on European welfare states is complicated. On one hand, increased immigration might undermine social solidarity and impose greater fiscal burdens on redistribution, reducing support for welfare spending. On the other, natives could respond to greater globalization with economic anxiety, increasing support for redistribution in order to mitigate risk. Welfare chauvinism predicts a mixed effect—increased spending for programs that middle-class natives use and reduced spending for programs that benefit immigrants disproportionately. I test this theory by analyzing (1) European attitudes towards immigration and welfare spending and (2) actual spending on these programs, particularly social housing. Additionally, I present a brief case study of France’s immigration/welfare relationship. Despite large increases in immigration, I find no significant increase in welfare chauvinistic attitudes and no systematic relationship between immigration and social spending. This surprising result—which contradicts recent empirical findings—suggests that immigration-based fears about Western European welfare states are overstated.
Highlights
Europe’s populist resurgence suggests that the continent’s appetite for globalization may be satiated
The French Case The results presented far characterize the average effect of immigration on various social spending categories for the entire sample of 13 Western European countries
Several specifications do point to negative pressure on housing spending, the findings’ sensitivity to model specification is a red flag that these results are not robust
Summary
Europe’s populist resurgence suggests that the continent’s appetite for globalization may be satiated. Prominent academic voices claim that immigration has spurred the retreat of liberalism (Zielonka, 2018) and may even cause the “strange death of Europe” (Murray, 2018). They and others are especially worried about immigration-induced changes to welfare state attitudes and behaviors. I find no systematic relationship between immigration and any social spending program This is puzzling given the correlation between recent surges in immigration and the resurgence of populism. These findings contradict apocalyptic voices who claim that immigration is an existential threat to European welfare states
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