Abstract
Abstract. The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emission on summer surface ozone in Europe was studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O3 and reduced European emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations. The European O3 precursor emission reductions in RCP4.5 are substantial and it remains to be seen if these reductions can be achieved. There is substantial decadal variability in the simulations forced by climate variability which is important to consider when looking at changes in surface O3 concentrations, especially until the first half of the 21st century. In order to account for changes in background O3 future regional model studies should couple global (hemispheric) and regional CTMs forced by a consistent set of meteorological and precursor emission data.
Highlights
IntroductionBackground levels of O3 in the troposphere over the northern mid-latitudes have increased by a factor of two to three since the end of the 19th century (Parrish et al, 2009)
Surface ozone (O3) has negative effects on human health and vegetation
We discuss the results from four MATCH simulations covering the period 1990–2100: 1. Climate sensitivity case 1 (ECH RCP2000 BC2000); describing the effect of changing climate on surface O3
Summary
Background levels of O3 in the troposphere over the northern mid-latitudes have increased by a factor of two to three since the end of the 19th century (Parrish et al, 2009). This is to a large extent related to increasing man made emissions of O3 precursors such as methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) (Isaksen et al, 2009). The purpose of the present study is to extend the analysis of future changes in surface O3 in Europe to include the combined transient effects of changes in climate, changes in O3 precursor emissions and changes in background concentrations over the 110-yr period from 1990 to 2100. We use recent compilations of historic and future trends of emissions of air pollutants over Europe and climate projections from two different global climate models downscaled over Europe to show regional detail
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