Abstract
Based on a review of the current state of the Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology, this paper analyzes the layout and costs of a potential CO2 infrastructure in Europe at the horizon of 2050. We apply the mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod to compute a CCTS infrastructure network for Europe, examining the effects of different CO2 price paths with different regional foci. Scenarios assuming low CO2 certificate prices lead to hardly any CCTS development in Europe. The iron and steel sector starts deployment once the CO2 certificate prices exceed 50 /tCO2. The cement sector starts investing at a threshold of 75 /tCO2, followed by the electricity sector when prices exceed 100 /tCO2. The degree of CCTS deployment is found to be more sensitive to variable costs of CO2 capture than to investment costs. Additional revenues generated from utilizing CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) in the North Sea would lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS, independent of the CO2 certificate price; this case may become especially relevant for the UK, Norway and the Netherlands. However, scattered CCTS deployment increases unit cost of transport and storage infrastructure by 30% or more.
Highlights
Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) was originally seen as a central element for decarbonized electricity systems, worldwide (e.g. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2010)
Estimates for the European energy system assumed 77 (IEA, 2012) to 108 GW (EC, 2011) of power generation capacity to be equipped with CCTS and a CO2 transport network of over 20,000 km by 2050 (JRC, 2011)
Sensitivity analysis shows that the future development of a CCTS infrastructure is more sensitive to its variable than its investment costs
Summary
Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) was originally seen as a central element for decarbonized electricity systems, worldwide (e.g. IEA, 2010). Estimates for the European energy system assumed 77 (IEA, 2012) to 108 GW (EC, 2011) of power generation capacity to be equipped with CCTS and a CO2 transport network of over 20,000 km by 2050 (JRC, 2011). The London Protocol still prohibits the movement of CO2 across marine borders for the purposes of geological storage (GCCSI, 2014). Facing these adverse developments, academia as well as technical reports became more balanced or even critical with respect to CCTS deployment (Hirschhausen et al, 2012a)
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