European Political Cooperation: An Application of Political Reliability Theory to Integration

Abstract

European Political Cooperation (EPC) denotes the foreign policy integration among members of the European Economic Community (EEC). The extent of political cooperative integration is analyzed by focusing upon the 'political reliability' or probability that EPC events reflect a consistent pattern of integration rather than merely an increasing frequency of interaction. A positive theory of EPC is built from first assumptions about unobservable integrative and disintegrative forces. Observable, politically cooperative events (e.g., European Council meetings, summit meetings, joint declarations, collective sanctions) are the consequence of the system of unobservable political forces which drive EPC activity. Two fundamental variables-political reliability and political interaction force-uniquely determine the EPC event process. Empirical tests strongly support the theory and demonstrate that by the mid1970s the forces of integration acting on the EPC system prevailed over the forces of disintegration. Two underlying processes may contribute to European foreign policy integration, however. The first is governed by a constant (Poisson) force, the other by a strong interaction force. These two subprocesses resemble interactions within the Political Committee of EPC and within the COREU telecommunications network.