European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions

Abstract

Projections of future surface ozone over Europe conducted utilizing chemistry transport models (CTMs) coupled to climate models differ greatly, even in sign. CTM sensitivity studies were conducted in order to investigate the importance of changes in natural isoprene emissions and dry deposition to vegetation, both coupled to meteorology. This knowledge can be used to improve surface ozone projections. Our simulations suggest climate change over Europe would cause changes in surface ozone between −4.0 to +13 ppb(v) on average (April–September) and −3.5 to +25 ppb(v) on average (April–September) daily maximum from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100. The change is positive in the southwest and negative in the north. The isoprene emissions increased by a factor of about 1.8 from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100. A rescaling of isoprene emissions shows that the large increase in isoprene emission is of importance (0–30% of the change in surface ozone) in central, southern, and western Europe. The use of a formulation for ozone dry deposition to vegetation, dependent on meteorology, and changes in snow cover, affecting the dry deposition, are more important processes. The changes in dry deposition to vegetation (not including changes in aerodynamic resistance) explain up to 80% of the surface ozone change in Spain. Therefore it is vital to include meteorological dependence for dry deposition of ozone to vegetation in surface ozone projections. Isoprene emissions are of less importance, but they are nonnegligible and should definitely be emitted online in climate ozone projection studies.