European Integration and Prime Ministerial Power: A Differential Impact on Cabinet Reshuffles in Germany and Sweden

Abstract

It is commonly assumed that European integration empowers prime ministers at the expense of cabinet ministers and parliamentary actors. This article follows the suggestion that an increase in cabinet reshuffles indicates power shifts in favour of the PM, and studies reshuffles in two countries that have been involved very differently in the process of European integration, Germany and Sweden. It hypothesises that if European integration empowers the PM, the PM will employ cabinet reshuffles more often. By implication, as integration increases, (1) ministerial reshuffles should become more frequent, and (2) political insiders and ministers holding important portfolios should be more likely to be dismissed. The results found in an event history analysis show that EU integration leads to an increase of turnover when looking at Swedish post-war cabinets, whereas no such effect is found for German cabinets. These results are in line with the idea that a differential impact of Europe on intra-executive relations should be expected.